Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1969) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1963) (GL)
Mar71.092292.8127.3893.64754.035314.738
Mar-Apr108.529319.17514.5186.86795.584572.283
Mar-May163.475338.15117.14811.677137.6851134.650

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10144.668354.671
2094.771213.481
3068.085150.957
4051.246108.479
5038.69281.000
6029.10858.958
7021.07043.525
8013.48830.594
906.32218.641

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1399.912995.168
2316.635754.220
3269.833667.168
4239.759599.596
5210.640552.114
6191.213489.941
7176.864449.024
8163.310412.900
9154.014378.894
10144.668354.671
11136.051335.419
12131.042315.040
13123.357300.180
14118.156285.797
15114.598270.562
16110.552258.889
17106.686245.719
18102.428232.805
1998.238221.849
2094.771213.481
2191.945205.613
2288.715197.101
2386.241191.301
2483.406183.066
2580.209178.035
2677.491173.782
2774.619167.445
2872.479162.530
2970.465156.945
3068.085150.957
3165.259145.620
3263.413140.335
3362.014136.256
3460.708132.317
3559.314127.038
3657.403122.922
3755.845118.905
3854.279115.240
3952.840112.286
4051.246108.479
4149.454104.881
4248.114102.266
4346.880100.096
4445.64097.164
4544.29094.575
4643.20491.730
4742.09789.196
4840.96685.955
4939.71483.551
5038.69281.000
5137.73378.726
5236.58576.490
5335.26373.923
5434.29271.517
5533.32969.124
5632.56666.287
5731.50964.642
5830.79363.005
5929.90961.236
6029.10858.958
6128.37256.732
6227.47055.138
6326.60353.672
6425.79251.902
6524.90250.546
6624.27549.180
6723.56147.922
6822.53146.308
6921.85044.679
7021.07043.525
7120.35041.971
7219.48340.747
7318.72839.333
7418.09538.090
7517.33436.734
7616.56935.542
7715.83734.264
7815.13033.102
7914.29932.005
8013.48830.594
8112.81029.291
8212.03428.074
8311.31826.718
8410.65925.604
8510.09924.652
869.35923.393
878.50422.120
887.78821.115
897.19119.930
906.32218.641
915.63917.463
924.82016.105
933.88714.696
942.96113.032
951.81011.875
961.01010.578
970.0008.754
980.0007.248
990.0005.571


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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