Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan54.76874.0919.3053.77117.41521.813
Jan-Feb111.571192.742109.0177.31048.310581.321
Jan-Mar181.720225.297138.13310.031103.365850.740

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10605.441427.042
20491.682267.675
30407.697188.078
40338.132132.090
50276.65195.875
60219.86167.354
70170.23947.953
80120.09332.271
9070.43618.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1941.543932.422
2841.919764.946
3779.560700.066
4734.055647.257
5699.680608.541
6675.990555.389
7656.443518.609
8638.968484.754
9620.520451.554
10605.441427.042
11590.703407.012
12576.611385.252
13563.988369.012
14549.519352.983
15538.692335.667
16527.746322.161
17519.571306.676
18511.188291.238
19501.344277.945
20491.682267.675
21481.177257.928
22473.240247.288
23465.002239.982
24454.142229.535
25445.815223.113
26439.452217.660
27430.263209.499
28422.572203.140
29415.727195.887
30407.697188.078
31399.985181.094
32394.771174.157
33387.990168.793
34381.076163.602
35373.897156.636
36367.325151.198
37357.901145.886
38351.433141.036
39344.601137.127
40338.132132.090
41331.343127.330
42325.767123.872
43318.469121.004
44312.750117.132
45305.710113.715
46299.428109.965
47294.777106.630
48288.237102.370
49282.88499.217
50276.65195.875
51270.81692.903
52266.21489.985
53260.22386.643
54254.89383.518
55249.89780.418
56244.22176.754
57237.61774.636
58232.05472.533
59225.96570.265
60219.86167.354
61216.01264.521
62209.21462.498
63204.41360.643
64199.76058.409
65195.82656.704
66190.42354.991
67185.51353.418
68180.76151.405
69175.23949.382
70170.23947.953
71166.05546.037
72160.85344.533
73156.14542.802
74150.93541.286
75145.61839.638
76140.57838.196
77136.49436.655
78131.49035.261
79126.16433.951
80120.09332.271
81115.19230.730
82110.66829.297
83106.02427.710
84101.69726.412
8595.42525.310
8690.20023.860
8785.68422.403
8880.26021.260
8975.57719.921
9070.43618.476
9165.07517.167
9259.26115.671
9354.17214.135
9448.72912.345
9543.55411.117
9638.1229.758
9731.8087.884
9825.8666.373
9917.3464.738


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence