Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Nowendoc River at Rocks Crossing ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Jan53.39320.45069.4383.77116.93521.813
Jan-Feb110.29840.12895.4737.31055.444581.321
Jan-Mar178.97268.664128.76610.031108.831850.740

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10692.551427.042
20575.320267.675
30486.965188.078
40413.786132.090
50347.76395.875
60288.84467.354
70225.23347.953
80167.68232.271
9097.77118.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11029.887932.422
2922.606764.946
3865.419700.066
4820.637647.257
5792.555608.541
6768.394555.389
7741.275518.609
8720.028484.754
9705.414451.554
10692.551427.042
11679.766407.012
12664.697385.252
13651.776369.012
14638.777352.983
15627.710335.667
16616.705322.161
17606.526306.676
18598.144291.238
19586.642277.945
20575.320267.675
21566.687257.928
22557.312247.288
23548.273239.982
24539.910229.535
25529.022223.113
26520.679217.660
27511.984209.499
28504.631203.140
29494.868195.887
30486.965188.078
31480.567181.094
32474.614174.157
33467.666168.793
34460.143163.602
35451.523156.636
36444.471151.198
37437.430145.886
38429.451141.036
39421.089137.127
40413.786132.090
41406.945127.330
42400.258123.872
43394.628121.004
44388.382117.132
45381.821113.715
46375.572109.965
47367.808106.630
48361.444102.370
49355.52599.217
50347.76395.875
51342.36792.903
52337.44189.985
53332.02986.643
54325.98383.518
55319.32980.418
56311.98376.754
57306.42374.636
58297.93272.533
59294.15270.265
60288.84467.354
61282.40464.521
62275.37262.498
63269.20560.643
64264.12858.409
65258.46656.704
66249.62954.991
67244.37253.418
68237.95251.405
69231.50049.382
70225.23347.953
71217.73946.037
72210.96844.533
73205.22542.802
74200.11341.286
75194.37839.638
76189.14638.196
77183.54536.655
78178.63235.261
79173.94633.951
80167.68232.271
81160.67230.730
82154.63929.297
83148.42827.710
84141.32526.412
85133.73325.310
86128.25823.860
87121.13722.403
88111.38621.260
89105.11119.921
9097.77118.476
9190.75117.167
9284.60315.671
9377.60514.135
9470.60412.345
9562.39011.117
9653.7689.758
9745.9967.884
9835.1296.373
9922.9134.738


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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