Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.28924.721
2013.02118.656
3011.10515.314
409.40812.586
508.19810.486
607.0708.490
705.9726.826
804.7975.153
903.4453.202

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.25246.225
223.39638.359
321.05235.535
419.98833.321
519.04731.742
618.24929.629
717.76428.199
817.26826.902
916.81925.644
1016.28924.721
1115.88823.970
1215.48323.154
1315.19322.544
1414.80721.941
1514.41721.286
1614.09720.772
1713.77520.179
1813.54219.582
1913.27519.062
2013.02118.656
2112.79018.267
2212.61817.837
2312.44717.539
2412.19717.107
2512.00316.838
2611.84416.607
2711.60216.258
2811.40715.982
2911.25015.663
3011.10515.314
3110.94614.997
3210.75714.676
3310.56714.425
3410.41714.177
3510.24113.839
3610.03013.571
379.87913.304
389.71113.055
399.55212.852
409.40812.586
419.26612.329
429.16312.140
439.03111.980
448.92311.762
458.77811.566
468.66311.347
478.55911.149
488.43110.891
498.32910.697
508.19810.486
518.10110.296
527.98310.105
537.8429.883
547.7299.670
557.6309.455
567.5199.194
577.4229.040
587.2798.885
597.1698.714
607.0708.490
616.9218.267
626.8268.104
636.7117.951
646.6167.764
656.5037.619
666.4107.469
676.2637.330
686.1697.148
696.0736.961
705.9726.826
715.8606.642
725.7406.493
735.6176.319
745.5096.163
755.3795.989
765.2665.833
775.1535.663
785.0205.505
794.8935.353
804.7975.153
814.6614.964
824.5174.783
834.3734.577
844.2734.402
854.1214.250
863.9974.043
873.8383.828
883.6883.653
893.5783.441
903.4453.202
913.2542.975
923.0532.703
932.8812.407
942.6722.037
952.4281.763
962.1871.438
971.8810.941
981.5550.486
991.0730.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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