Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.77424.050
2011.25617.173
309.03913.656
407.54310.941
506.1778.942
605.1427.115
704.1975.667
803.1674.262
902.0482.707

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
129.28254.171
224.39242.059
321.95038.006
420.20534.980
518.93632.808
618.02730.104
717.00528.303
816.17826.683
915.48125.153
1014.77424.050
1114.20823.164
1213.78022.219
1313.36721.514
1413.04720.816
1512.69420.073
1612.35519.503
1712.06718.836
1811.76118.174
1911.49117.609
2011.25617.173
2110.94816.755
2210.67816.280
2310.46315.979
2410.29715.518
2510.04115.239
269.85514.999
279.63914.627
289.43914.336
299.23114.018
309.03913.656
318.90613.337
328.74113.004
338.59612.751
348.42212.514
358.29212.169
368.15011.908
378.01711.642
387.86511.402
397.69211.200
407.54310.941
417.40010.691
427.22110.511
437.08310.354
446.96510.147
456.8379.961
466.6899.749
476.5469.567
486.4209.324
496.2969.137
506.1778.942
516.0598.765
525.9608.592
535.8618.380
545.7418.192
555.6457.984
565.5417.755
575.4337.616
585.3417.473
595.2357.322
605.1427.115
615.0496.921
624.9456.778
634.8436.642
644.7496.481
654.6726.354
664.5786.223
674.4866.102
684.4275.944
694.3085.783
704.1975.667
714.0845.509
723.9675.382
733.8675.234
743.7665.102
753.6564.956
763.5554.825
773.4534.683
783.3694.552
793.2744.427
803.1674.262
813.0734.107
822.9493.960
832.8433.793
842.7303.653
852.6353.531
862.5233.366
872.4283.196
882.2543.058
892.1502.893
902.0482.707
911.8952.533
921.7662.326
931.6222.102
941.4881.826
951.2941.625
961.0731.389
970.8831.035
980.6300.718
990.2570.328


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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