Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.61224.050
2012.69817.173
3010.27913.656
408.57510.941
507.0788.942
605.9227.115
704.8535.667
803.7374.262
902.4722.707

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.49954.171
226.98942.059
324.62338.006
422.57234.980
521.24832.808
620.10730.104
718.98128.303
818.13026.683
917.39525.153
1016.61224.050
1116.01823.164
1215.60922.219
1315.08421.514
1414.71720.816
1514.30920.073
1613.97419.503
1713.62918.836
1813.25618.174
1912.98417.609
2012.69817.173
2112.41216.755
2212.15716.280
2311.87815.979
2411.61915.518
2511.36115.239
2611.16814.999
2710.92114.627
2810.68514.336
2910.49614.018
3010.27913.656
3110.11913.337
329.94413.004
339.77912.751
349.59812.514
359.45512.169
369.30211.908
379.14311.642
388.96511.402
398.76211.200
408.57510.941
418.41410.691
428.26610.511
438.13110.354
447.95810.147
457.7969.961
467.6379.749
477.4699.567
487.3409.324
497.1889.137
507.0788.942
516.9868.765
526.8538.592
536.7338.380
546.5998.192
556.5117.984
566.4017.755
576.2877.616
586.1567.473
596.0607.322
605.9227.115
615.8296.921
625.7146.778
635.6216.642
645.5076.481
655.4286.354
665.3326.223
675.2186.102
685.0915.944
694.9945.783
704.8535.667
714.7495.509
724.6185.382
734.4975.234
744.3825.102
754.2754.956
764.1604.825
774.0684.683
783.9464.552
793.8534.427
803.7374.262
813.6144.107
823.5013.960
833.3663.793
843.2493.653
853.1253.531
862.9993.366
872.8583.196
882.7123.058
892.5872.893
902.4722.707
912.3062.533
922.1542.326
932.0092.102
941.8231.826
951.6451.625
961.3921.389
971.1811.035
980.8920.718
990.4660.328


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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