Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.74625.774
209.18117.613
307.20413.336
405.79110.117
504.7177.871
603.8105.959
703.0304.549
802.2383.309
901.4322.096

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.28651.937
222.91643.126
320.40239.748
418.32737.015
516.81835.022
615.85832.299
714.90030.423
813.95528.702
913.20127.017
1012.74625.774
1112.24524.758
1211.76323.654
1311.35622.828
1411.02122.011
1510.61821.127
1610.34520.435
1710.12719.639
189.71318.841
199.44818.150
209.18117.613
218.93317.102
228.73116.540
238.51016.152
248.27815.595
258.11315.250
267.95414.956
277.77814.513
287.54514.166
297.35513.768
307.20413.336
317.08112.946
326.91012.557
336.77012.253
346.64511.958
356.49111.558
366.37311.243
376.19810.933
386.06310.648
395.91510.417
405.79110.117
415.6659.830
425.5499.621
435.4429.446
445.3289.209
455.2398.998
465.1378.765
475.0298.556
484.9218.287
494.8288.086
504.7177.871
514.6187.679
524.5107.489
534.4337.269
544.3457.062
554.2586.855
564.1476.607
574.0486.463
583.9666.319
593.8916.162
603.8105.959
613.7395.760
623.6625.616
633.5665.484
643.4935.323
653.4175.199
663.3335.074
673.2534.958
683.1754.808
693.0934.657
703.0304.549
712.9584.403
722.8714.288
732.7994.154
742.7274.035
752.6483.905
762.5563.791
772.4833.667
782.3933.554
792.3143.447
802.2383.309
812.1793.180
822.1023.059
832.0212.924
841.9442.812
851.8602.716
861.7742.588
871.7102.457
881.6332.354
891.5272.231
901.4322.096
911.3471.972
921.2451.827
931.1341.676
941.0271.495
950.9191.367
960.7851.222
970.6141.014
980.4580.838
990.1930.637


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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