Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.25624.816
208.16116.112
306.22412.038
404.9479.119
503.9747.131
603.1805.452
702.5224.212
801.7923.114
901.1012.024

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.74964.384
221.68149.002
318.82243.631
416.93739.520
515.47536.656
614.42832.926
713.47230.477
812.73828.315
911.90926.275
1011.25624.816
1110.87623.652
1210.44622.415
1310.11621.509
149.70220.627
159.41319.688
169.08818.965
178.82918.145
188.56417.335
198.37016.644
208.16116.112
217.93615.610
227.69115.064
237.48114.690
247.28114.156
257.15013.828
266.98213.550
276.77913.133
286.60012.808
296.42212.438
306.22412.038
316.02411.679
325.89611.322
335.77011.045
345.66910.776
355.53810.414
365.41210.129
375.2989.851
385.2049.595
395.0869.388
404.9479.119
414.8348.864
424.7488.678
434.6388.523
444.5418.312
454.4518.125
464.3117.919
474.2237.735
484.1337.497
494.0447.320
503.9747.131
513.8976.962
523.7956.795
533.7256.602
543.6396.420
553.5586.238
563.4826.021
573.4005.894
583.3215.768
593.2435.630
603.1805.452
613.1145.277
623.0395.151
632.9365.035
642.8804.893
652.8164.784
662.7584.674
672.6984.572
682.6434.441
692.5934.307
702.5224.212
712.4514.084
722.3983.982
732.2993.863
742.2183.759
752.1453.644
762.0763.542
772.0003.433
781.9253.332
791.8513.237
801.7923.114
811.7292.999
821.6592.891
831.6012.770
841.5442.670
851.4462.583
861.3882.468
871.3292.351
881.2532.257
891.1742.146
901.1012.024
911.0421.911
920.9501.779
930.8621.640
940.7781.472
950.6761.354
960.5641.219
970.4531.024
980.3080.858
990.0910.665


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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