Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.55430.266
2017.18822.819
3014.17518.234
4011.78214.317
509.88511.307
608.1958.573
706.7046.485
805.1154.635
903.4792.857

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.95049.867
231.02243.588
329.11141.127
427.31539.104
525.68637.606
624.85435.520
723.90234.052
823.04932.677
922.29731.302
1021.55430.266
1121.12829.404
1220.59528.450
1320.13827.724
1419.72226.994
1519.20026.189
1618.79525.548
1718.38724.797
1817.95924.030
1917.56523.354
2017.18822.819
2116.71922.302
2216.46221.725
2316.11121.321
2415.84720.732
2515.57620.363
2615.29820.044
2714.94119.559
2814.62619.174
2914.40418.726
3014.17518.234
3113.94317.784
3213.66417.327
3313.34216.967
3413.07116.612
3512.88716.127
3612.63215.740
3712.43915.354
3812.17614.995
3911.99614.702
4011.78214.317
4111.53413.946
4211.27813.672
4311.09413.443
4410.92313.128
4510.72612.846
4610.58112.532
4710.41112.249
4810.21411.881
4910.05911.604
509.88511.307
519.68811.038
529.49110.771
539.30610.461
549.13710.167
559.0049.870
568.8259.515
578.6429.306
588.4939.097
598.3608.869
608.1958.573
618.0908.281
627.9538.069
637.8037.874
647.6717.636
657.5357.452
667.3877.266
677.2117.094
687.0316.872
696.8776.646
706.7046.485
716.4976.267
726.3396.095
736.1735.895
746.0405.718
755.8965.524
765.7435.353
775.5995.168
785.3955.000
795.2584.841
805.1154.635
814.9204.444
824.7794.265
834.6124.065
844.4953.899
854.2963.758
864.1423.570
873.9703.380
883.7913.229
893.6203.051
903.4792.857
913.2472.679
923.0432.473
932.8492.259
942.6372.006
952.4261.829
962.1901.631
971.8431.351
981.4621.120
990.9620.862


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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