Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.01624.050
209.79717.173
307.88613.656
406.53510.941
505.3138.942
604.3817.115
703.5385.667
802.6404.262
901.6142.707

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.37654.171
222.04142.059
319.53038.006
417.95134.980
516.88232.808
615.82830.104
715.14728.303
814.27326.683
913.67625.153
1013.01624.050
1112.50323.164
1212.03222.219
1311.67621.514
1411.39820.816
1511.13520.073
1610.87319.503
1710.57818.836
1810.26818.174
1910.01117.609
209.79717.173
219.56316.755
229.28816.280
239.11415.979
248.93315.518
258.75215.239
268.55814.999
278.39414.627
288.20914.336
298.07414.018
307.88613.656
317.73813.337
327.59313.004
337.43812.751
347.30212.514
357.18412.169
367.04011.908
376.90411.642
386.78411.402
396.65111.200
406.53510.941
416.40710.691
426.22910.511
436.11410.354
446.00510.147
455.9059.961
465.7699.749
475.6349.567
485.5399.324
495.4239.137
505.3138.942
515.1848.765
525.0998.592
535.0228.380
544.9238.192
554.8097.984
564.7127.755
574.6167.616
584.5287.473
594.4497.322
604.3817.115
614.2746.921
624.1896.778
634.0996.642
644.0336.481
653.9656.354
663.8846.223
673.7986.102
683.7145.944
693.6475.783
703.5385.667
713.4555.509
723.3355.382
733.2575.234
743.1765.102
753.0874.956
762.9714.825
772.8724.683
782.8054.552
792.7224.427
802.6404.262
812.5304.107
822.4383.960
832.3423.793
842.2523.653
852.1583.531
862.0673.366
871.9803.196
881.8433.058
891.7332.893
901.6142.707
911.4982.533
921.3742.326
931.2642.102
941.1431.826
950.9501.625
960.7721.389
970.5861.035
980.3550.718
990.0210.328


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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