Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.65519.300
205.85412.223
304.3919.038
403.4216.807
502.6275.304
602.0164.044
701.5263.130
801.0542.320
900.6001.524

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.60160.140
218.00542.115
315.55236.517
413.41932.499
512.14229.706
611.33726.343
710.32224.174
89.63722.276
99.14920.530
108.65519.300
118.22418.331
127.93017.314
137.60916.568
147.24215.840
156.92615.078
166.67114.501
176.41413.836
186.26013.186
196.04212.639
205.85412.223
215.68611.829
225.52711.385
235.35511.106
245.19610.685
255.04710.433
264.93410.217
274.8079.885
284.6879.629
294.5269.351
304.3919.038
314.2788.765
324.1708.483
334.0588.271
343.9518.074
353.8647.790
363.7657.578
373.6597.363
383.5547.171
393.4907.011
403.4216.807
413.3146.612
423.2326.473
433.1546.353
443.0756.195
453.0096.055
462.9365.896
472.8565.760
482.7755.581
492.7055.445
502.6275.304
512.5665.177
522.4885.054
532.4294.904
542.3664.773
552.2984.629
562.2394.473
572.1894.378
582.1304.282
592.0704.181
602.0164.044
611.9643.917
621.9173.824
631.8673.737
641.8233.634
651.7893.553
661.7353.472
671.6823.396
681.6353.299
691.5783.200
701.5263.130
711.4783.034
721.4372.959
731.3802.872
741.3322.795
751.2942.710
761.2502.635
771.1972.554
781.1492.481
791.1102.411
801.0542.320
811.0022.236
820.9602.157
830.9262.068
840.8791.995
850.8331.932
860.7831.848
870.7441.762
880.7011.694
890.6551.613
900.6001.524
910.5451.442
920.4971.346
930.4261.246
940.3741.125
950.3171.040
960.2250.943
970.1250.803
980.0330.684
990.0000.547


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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