Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry



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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.514
2010.394
307.963
406.191
504.960
603.899
703.099
802.374
901.632

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.011
230.068
326.743
424.241
522.518
620.294
718.845
817.570
916.370
1015.514
1114.831
1214.105
1313.573
1413.055
1512.504
1612.078
1711.595
1811.117
1910.708
2010.394
2110.096
229.772
239.550
249.232
259.036
268.870
278.621
288.426
298.204
307.963
317.747
327.531
337.364
347.201
356.981
366.808
376.638
386.482
396.355
406.191
416.034
425.919
435.824
445.694
455.578
465.451
475.336
485.188
495.078
504.960
514.854
524.749
534.628
544.513
554.398
564.261
574.181
584.100
594.013
603.899
613.787
623.707
633.632
643.541
653.471
663.399
673.333
683.248
693.161
703.099
713.015
722.948
732.871
742.802
752.726
762.659
772.586
782.520
792.456
802.374
812.297
822.225
832.143
842.075
852.016
861.938
871.858
881.793
891.717
901.632
911.554
921.461
931.364
941.245
951.161
961.063
970.922
980.799
990.655


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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