Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.73631.012
2016.46721.753
3013.11616.653
4010.76212.702
508.7749.900
607.0907.496
705.6665.721
804.2914.166
902.8182.659

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.24658.407
232.83349.394
330.01645.899
428.10443.051
526.58540.958
625.41338.074
724.31136.068
823.21234.211
922.31632.377
1021.73631.012
1121.01329.889
1220.41328.659
1319.76427.734
1419.39226.813
1518.84025.810
1618.23425.019
1717.78824.105
1817.47523.183
1916.94722.380
2016.46721.753
2116.10321.152
2215.73920.490
2315.39520.031
2414.97519.368
2514.66618.957
2614.30018.605
2714.09018.075
2813.76817.657
2913.47117.176
3013.11616.653
3112.85216.180
3212.62215.705
3312.39215.335
3412.15814.973
3511.92514.482
3611.70414.095
3711.48813.713
3811.22013.360
3910.98913.074
4010.76212.702
4110.52712.346
4210.32512.086
4310.13611.869
449.92111.573
459.71711.310
469.54911.018
479.36110.757
489.17810.420
498.96110.169
508.7749.900
518.5799.658
528.4299.420
538.2559.144
548.0888.883
557.9378.623
567.7748.311
577.5808.130
587.4087.948
597.2597.751
607.0907.496
616.9557.245
626.8137.064
636.6886.897
646.5256.694
656.3676.538
666.2236.381
676.1126.235
685.9666.047
695.8225.856
705.6665.721
715.5475.538
725.3815.392
735.2435.224
745.1015.076
754.9704.913
764.8424.769
774.7264.614
784.5804.473
794.4304.339
804.2914.166
814.1484.005
824.0113.855
833.8233.686
843.6543.546
853.5143.427
863.3713.268
873.2403.106
883.0822.978
892.9292.826
902.8182.659
912.6712.506
922.4902.328
932.2852.142
942.1091.920
951.9111.765
961.6981.588
971.4241.337
981.1731.125
990.8100.885


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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