Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry



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Exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry ( Jan 2009 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.50324.014
2026.69915.110
3020.77011.085
4016.2978.269
5013.0126.387
6010.4264.825
708.3193.692
806.2072.706
904.0661.749

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.63568.680
270.23750.618
361.16544.498
455.57839.890
550.93436.721
647.68932.648
744.90330.009
842.66227.701
940.37225.543
1038.50324.014
1136.84022.801
1235.28421.518
1333.61720.584
1432.42419.679
1531.40818.720
1630.09317.984
1729.02417.153
1828.22616.336
1927.35915.642
2026.69915.110
2125.94714.609
2225.14314.065
2324.58313.694
2424.01313.165
2523.46512.841
2622.64812.567
2722.22412.158
2821.78711.839
2921.24011.476
3020.77011.085
3120.21110.736
3219.60110.389
3319.08610.121
3418.6429.860
3518.1549.511
3617.8259.237
3717.4098.969
3817.0328.723
3916.6248.525
4016.2978.269
4115.9718.025
4215.5627.848
4315.2047.701
4414.8187.501
4514.4837.324
4614.2287.129
4713.8896.954
4813.5406.731
4913.2866.564
5013.0126.387
5112.6966.228
5212.4236.072
5312.1835.891
5411.9725.722
5511.7065.552
5611.4715.351
5711.1735.233
5810.9295.116
5910.7094.989
6010.4264.825
6110.1644.664
629.8924.548
639.6544.442
649.4264.312
659.2394.213
669.0484.112
678.8874.019
688.7143.900
698.5133.778
708.3193.692
718.0733.576
727.8923.484
737.5983.377
747.3843.283
757.1923.179
767.0363.088
776.8382.990
786.6372.901
796.4342.816
806.2072.706
816.0162.604
825.8542.509
835.6102.402
845.4082.313
855.1882.237
864.9952.136
874.7812.033
884.5321.952
894.3261.855
904.0661.749
913.8751.651
923.6561.537
933.3631.418
943.0131.276
952.7401.175
962.4361.061
972.1250.898
981.7630.761
991.3670.603


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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