Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.2765.727
Median5.50411.464
Mean6.43713.448
75% Quartile8.67619.245
Interquartile Range5.40013.518

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.34142.032
218.05837.254
316.61735.379
415.45533.835
514.60132.691
614.00231.095
713.46429.969
812.92228.912
912.44427.853
1012.10527.053
1111.80026.386
1211.49825.645
1311.26925.080
1411.00024.511
1510.70823.882
1610.46923.379
1710.20122.788
1810.04122.182
199.81721.646
209.60121.220
219.39120.807
229.23820.345
239.05720.020
248.86219.545
258.67719.245
268.50818.987
278.32818.591
288.14518.275
297.93917.907
307.80517.500
317.70517.126
327.57216.745
337.45416.442
347.34016.143
357.18815.732
367.05215.401
376.91615.071
386.80114.761
396.67514.507
406.54014.171
416.43513.846
426.31913.604
436.22213.401
446.11813.120
456.02912.868
465.93012.585
475.82812.329
485.73011.993
495.61611.739
505.50411.464
515.42711.215
525.34410.965
535.25210.674
545.15610.395
555.05810.112
564.9569.771
574.8899.569
584.8069.366
594.7179.143
604.6228.852
614.5398.562
624.4488.352
634.3598.156
644.2597.916
654.1717.730
664.0797.541
673.9927.365
683.9127.137
693.8256.904
703.7366.737
713.6426.510
723.5576.330
733.4606.119
743.3615.932
753.2745.727
763.1895.545
773.0965.347
783.0095.167
792.9114.995
802.8264.772
812.7494.565
822.6444.370
832.5434.151
842.4493.969
852.3663.814
862.2733.606
872.1743.396
882.0673.228
891.9593.030
901.8572.813
911.7612.614
921.6492.383
931.5352.142
941.4151.856
951.2241.657
961.0441.432
970.8411.116
980.6080.853
990.3190.561


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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