Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.281
Median5.859
Mean8.367
75% Quartile10.468
Interquartile Range7.188

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
142.727
232.872
329.454
426.879
525.025
622.718
721.185
819.811
918.520
1017.596
1116.857
1216.072
1315.490
1414.917
1514.311
1613.848
1713.309
1812.778
1912.327
2011.982
2111.653
2211.280
2311.044
2410.686
2510.471
2610.286
2710.000
289.778
299.536
309.262
319.022
328.773
338.585
348.409
358.155
367.964
377.769
387.595
397.449
407.262
417.083
426.955
436.844
446.697
456.566
466.418
476.291
486.122
495.993
505.859
515.738
525.620
535.476
545.349
555.210
565.058
574.965
584.871
594.772
604.637
614.511
624.418
634.331
644.228
654.146
664.064
673.987
683.888
693.787
703.715
713.618
723.540
733.449
743.369
753.281
763.202
773.117
783.039
792.965
802.868
812.778
822.693
832.597
842.517
852.448
862.356
872.261
882.185
892.094
901.994
911.901
921.791
931.675
941.533
951.432
961.316
971.145
980.997
990.822


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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