Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.0475.989
Median7.86510.486
Mean8.82312.624
75% Quartile11.45016.838
Interquartile Range6.40310.849

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.11146.225
222.55838.359
320.56935.535
419.41033.321
518.48631.742
617.89529.629
717.20428.199
816.65126.902
916.11225.644
1015.77724.721
1115.35823.970
1214.89923.154
1314.55522.544
1414.24021.941
1513.91921.286
1613.59320.772
1713.31320.179
1813.03719.582
1912.82319.062
2012.51618.656
2112.31018.267
2212.10317.837
2311.88517.539
2411.65317.107
2511.45216.838
2611.29116.607
2711.14116.258
2810.93615.982
2910.76115.663
3010.65515.314
3110.48114.997
3210.30914.676
3310.18414.425
3410.02814.177
359.86113.839
369.67713.571
379.51413.304
389.35313.055
399.15912.852
409.04612.586
418.92112.329
428.76412.140
438.67411.980
448.55311.762
458.43611.566
468.30211.347
478.21911.149
488.08910.891
497.97510.697
507.86510.486
517.74610.296
527.63410.105
537.5159.883
547.3829.670
557.2689.455
567.1559.194
577.0359.040
586.9128.885
596.8058.714
606.6968.490
616.6098.267
626.5078.104
636.3837.951
646.2567.764
656.1577.619
666.0297.469
675.9257.330
685.8507.148
695.7656.961
705.6606.826
715.5456.642
725.4346.493
735.3156.319
745.1606.163
755.0465.989
764.9275.833
774.8375.663
784.7375.505
794.6285.353
804.4895.153
814.3864.964
824.2704.783
834.1604.577
844.0294.402
853.8924.250
863.7494.043
873.6153.828
883.4523.653
893.2943.441
903.1713.202
912.9852.975
922.8192.703
932.6362.407
942.4322.037
952.1981.763
962.0141.438
971.7440.941
981.3600.486
990.9580.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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