Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry


Return to catchment list
Product list for Barnard River above Barry


  • Jan

Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.7193.180
Median3.3806.387
Mean5.08610.649
75% Quartile6.24412.841
Interquartile Range4.5259.662

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.30468.680
222.38750.618
319.07844.498
416.72139.890
515.18336.721
613.80232.648
712.90630.009
812.22327.701
911.57225.543
1010.90724.014
1110.34522.801
129.91921.518
139.52220.584
149.13219.679
158.74018.720
168.41917.984
178.07317.153
187.83416.336
197.62415.642
207.36615.110
217.11614.609
226.87814.065
236.64613.694
246.42813.165
256.24512.841
266.09512.567
275.97012.158
285.79111.839
295.63211.476
305.49411.085
315.35810.736
325.24310.389
335.11710.121
345.0029.860
354.8519.511
364.7409.237
374.6128.969
384.4948.723
394.3588.525
404.2548.269
414.1448.025
424.0627.848
433.9597.701
443.8627.501
453.7837.324
463.6917.129
473.6176.954
483.5286.731
493.4636.564
503.3806.387
513.2956.228
523.2126.072
533.1275.891
543.0575.722
552.9795.552
562.8965.351
572.8415.233
582.7905.116
592.7134.989
602.6544.825
612.5914.664
622.5284.548
632.4674.442
642.4064.312
652.3524.213
662.2864.112
672.2194.019
682.1563.900
692.0703.778
702.0253.692
711.9703.576
721.9093.484
731.8503.377
741.7893.283
751.7193.179
761.6633.088
771.6092.990
781.5502.901
791.4942.816
801.4412.706
811.3862.604
821.3382.509
831.2892.402
841.2292.313
851.1722.237
861.1082.136
871.0232.033
880.9671.952
890.9101.855
900.8451.749
910.7761.651
920.7171.537
930.6521.418
940.5711.276
950.4861.175
960.4101.061
970.2900.898
980.1960.761
990.0000.603


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence