Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry



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Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.8554.303
Median8.5258.148
Mean10.68011.889
75% Quartile14.41015.268
Interquartile Range9.55610.965

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.67858.242
233.41546.735
330.07242.479
428.29139.113
526.58436.707
625.13833.489
724.03631.322
823.20329.369
922.08427.492
1021.33526.129
1120.52925.029
1219.84623.846
1319.31022.971
1418.84022.113
1518.26421.192
1617.87220.477
1717.40819.661
1816.93818.849
1916.52418.152
2016.16417.613
2115.79917.101
2215.35016.543
2315.03716.158
2414.72415.608
2514.41415.269
2614.09314.980
2713.77214.546
2813.46414.208
2913.13113.820
3012.90613.400
3112.75713.023
3212.44412.646
3312.15012.353
3411.90412.068
3511.66411.682
3611.41011.380
3711.15711.082
3810.95210.808
3910.74910.586
4010.55310.299
4110.30410.024
4210.0789.824
439.8629.656
449.6649.429
459.4649.227
469.2449.004
479.0378.804
488.8678.546
498.6808.353
508.5258.148
518.3717.963
528.1897.781
538.0367.570
547.8757.371
557.6887.172
567.4806.933
577.3556.794
587.1786.655
597.0336.504
606.8696.308
616.7186.115
626.5385.976
636.4265.847
646.3125.691
656.1745.571
666.0145.449
675.8775.336
685.7055.190
695.6075.042
705.4764.936
715.3544.793
725.2284.680
735.1104.548
744.9884.431
754.8534.303
764.7074.189
774.5764.067
784.4023.955
794.2753.848
804.1633.710
814.0163.582
823.8523.460
833.7123.324
843.5673.211
853.4123.114
863.2562.985
873.1252.852
882.9842.747
892.8062.621
902.6422.482
912.4672.354
922.2892.205
932.1652.047
941.9741.856
951.8031.721
961.6381.567
971.3891.344
981.0631.153
990.7340.931


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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