Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry



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Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.4365.524
Median6.15111.307
Mean7.69414.297
75% Quartile10.40420.362
Interquartile Range6.96814.838

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.23449.867
224.01743.588
322.05541.127
420.41939.104
519.32537.606
618.33735.520
717.40134.052
816.64532.677
916.04531.302
1015.34930.266
1115.01729.404
1214.58728.450
1314.06827.724
1413.72326.994
1513.35226.189
1612.96625.548
1712.63524.797
1812.28524.030
1911.99623.354
2011.71722.819
2111.43622.302
2211.16921.725
2310.93521.321
2410.64220.732
2510.40620.363
2610.14120.044
279.90419.559
289.70919.174
299.48718.726
309.33018.234
319.11617.784
328.92017.327
338.66716.967
348.44716.612
358.30516.127
368.14815.740
378.00215.354
387.83314.995
397.63214.702
407.49314.317
417.34313.946
427.21213.672
437.04913.443
446.91713.128
456.77912.846
466.65312.532
476.51312.249
486.38111.881
496.26611.604
506.15111.307
516.02511.038
525.89910.771
535.77710.461
545.66110.167
555.5369.870
565.4279.515
575.3059.306
585.1569.097
595.0668.869
604.9728.573
614.8918.281
624.8048.069
634.7267.874
644.6117.636
654.5287.452
664.4297.266
674.3187.094
684.2076.872
694.0866.646
703.9676.485
713.8656.267
723.7656.095
733.6715.895
743.5615.718
753.4355.524
763.3515.353
773.2495.168
783.1405.000
793.0164.841
802.9394.635
812.8354.444
822.7434.265
832.6364.065
842.5473.899
852.4473.758
862.3713.570
872.2493.380
882.1373.229
892.0213.051
901.8932.857
911.7842.679
921.6672.473
931.5372.259
941.4152.006
951.2901.829
961.1271.631
970.9361.351
980.6751.120
990.4760.862


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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