Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry



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Probability distribution for Barnard River above Barry ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.3593.180
Median8.0186.387
Mean11.57210.649
75% Quartile14.53612.841
Interquartile Range10.1769.662

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
158.48568.680
246.31550.618
339.73144.498
435.83739.890
532.68336.721
630.33932.648
728.68730.009
827.14427.701
925.60025.543
1024.37224.014
1123.16722.801
1222.17021.518
1321.32920.584
1420.46919.679
1519.54918.720
1619.03717.984
1718.44917.153
1817.84716.336
1917.16915.642
2016.64115.110
2116.10914.609
2215.67914.065
2315.35213.694
2415.06113.165
2514.53812.841
2614.19712.567
2713.86512.158
2813.47111.839
2913.17511.476
3012.90111.085
3112.55110.736
3212.21410.389
3311.85210.121
3411.5699.860
3511.3009.511
3610.9769.237
3710.6968.969
3810.4758.723
3910.2058.525
4010.0018.269
419.7948.025
429.5927.848
439.3567.701
449.0787.501
458.8697.324
468.7247.129
478.5606.954
488.3786.731
498.2166.564
508.0186.387
517.8236.228
527.6876.072
537.5245.891
547.3695.722
557.2045.552
567.0365.351
576.7955.233
586.6585.116
596.4934.989
606.3864.825
616.2574.664
626.1054.548
635.9654.442
645.8104.312
655.6704.213
665.5484.112
675.4324.019
685.3023.900
695.1743.778
705.0273.692
714.8943.576
724.7523.484
734.6253.377
744.5113.283
754.3583.179
764.2443.088
774.1172.990
783.9952.901
793.8522.816
803.7302.706
813.6372.604
823.5052.509
833.3952.402
843.2552.313
853.1002.237
862.9772.136
872.8632.033
882.6781.952
892.5171.855
902.4091.749
912.2981.651
922.1481.537
931.9261.418
941.7471.276
951.5631.175
961.3721.061
971.1540.898
980.9880.761
990.6940.603


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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