Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Jan3.9792.4500.9190.1912.7733.557
Jan-Feb8.03812.4803.6040.2775.90860.369
Jan-Mar10.80418.0379.8040.5427.51574.796

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.02624.014
209.58915.110
307.20711.085
405.6108.269
504.4566.387
603.5284.825
702.7343.692
801.9792.706
901.2091.749

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.19068.680
228.00250.618
324.20644.498
421.17239.890
519.49436.721
617.69132.648
716.70230.009
815.70527.701
914.74125.543
1014.02624.014
1113.41722.801
1212.81221.518
1312.30420.584
1411.78219.679
1511.28818.720
1610.80817.984
1710.43317.153
1810.15216.336
199.87815.642
209.58915.110
219.29714.609
228.97214.065
238.64513.694
248.44213.165
258.21312.841
267.98312.567
277.77112.158
287.56211.839
297.39111.476
307.20711.085
317.04610.736
326.83410.389
336.72110.121
346.5609.860
356.3879.511
366.2379.237
376.0358.969
385.8668.723
395.7378.525
405.6108.269
415.4678.025
425.3377.848
435.1947.701
445.0837.501
454.9827.324
464.8727.129
474.7636.954
484.6736.731
494.5636.564
504.4566.387
514.3516.228
524.2476.072
534.1545.891
544.0465.722
553.9555.552
563.8625.351
573.7835.233
583.7005.116
593.6004.989
603.5284.825
613.4374.664
623.3634.548
633.2854.442
643.2164.312
653.1544.213
663.0724.112
672.9594.019
682.8793.900
692.8053.778
702.7343.692
712.6603.576
722.5723.484
732.4943.377
742.4003.283
752.3393.179
762.2673.088
772.2002.990
782.1342.901
792.0562.816
801.9792.706
811.9072.604
821.8292.509
831.7632.402
841.7052.313
851.6352.237
861.5562.136
871.4522.033
881.3491.952
891.2921.855
901.2091.749
911.1241.651
921.0461.537
930.9581.418
940.8491.276
950.7371.175
960.6051.061
970.5090.898
980.3600.761
990.2270.603


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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