Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Feb4.05910.0302.6850.0863.13656.811
Feb-Mar6.82415.5878.8840.3524.74371.239
Feb-Apr9.14218.75510.2770.5695.85777.738

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.13119.300
209.06812.223
306.7769.038
405.3256.807
504.2025.304
603.2674.044
702.5463.130
801.8262.320
901.1101.524

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.56960.140
226.54142.115
322.42236.517
420.17532.499
518.40029.706
617.04126.343
715.80224.174
814.76322.276
913.72820.530
1013.13119.300
1112.39518.331
1211.97517.314
1311.42216.568
1411.09115.840
1510.65315.078
1610.25014.501
179.94213.836
189.63513.186
199.34312.639
209.06812.223
218.78911.829
228.52211.385
238.25911.106
247.99710.685
257.78310.433
267.57710.217
277.3629.885
287.1839.629
296.9889.351
306.7769.038
316.6158.765
326.4208.483
336.2658.271
346.1288.074
355.9957.790
365.8417.578
375.6937.363
385.5587.171
395.4287.011
405.3256.807
415.2106.612
425.0846.473
434.9916.353
444.8736.195
454.7686.055
464.6605.896
474.5305.760
484.4245.581
494.3125.445
504.2025.304
514.1095.177
523.9885.054
533.8834.904
543.7524.773
553.6784.629
563.5924.473
573.5194.378
583.4224.282
593.3404.181
603.2674.044
613.1953.917
623.1123.824
633.0483.737
642.9713.634
652.8993.553
662.8233.472
672.7513.396
682.6853.299
692.6243.200
702.5463.130
712.4683.034
722.4062.959
732.3282.872
742.2582.795
752.1832.710
762.1062.635
772.0092.554
781.9552.481
791.8872.411
801.8262.320
811.7612.236
821.7062.157
831.6152.068
841.5501.995
851.4781.932
861.4071.848
871.3351.762
881.2701.694
891.1901.613
901.1101.524
911.0451.442
920.9741.346
930.8891.246
940.7751.125
950.6681.040
960.5860.943
970.4370.803
980.3100.684
990.1030.547


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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