Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Jun3.8902.9071.6630.4372.24022.128
Jun-Jul9.2357.8443.3041.0735.61841.934
Jun-Aug14.36910.4424.3251.4179.65452.881

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.07331.012
2015.90321.753
3012.61916.653
4010.32212.702
508.3989.900
606.7817.496
705.4055.721
804.0784.166
902.6652.659

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.53358.407
232.05949.394
329.26845.899
427.34243.051
525.84740.958
624.76838.074
723.62136.068
822.53334.211
921.62732.377
1021.07331.012
1120.33829.889
1219.75128.659
1319.10927.734
1418.74326.813
1518.25625.810
1617.64125.019
1717.18624.105
1816.86723.183
1916.37722.380
2015.90321.753
2115.50921.152
2215.16220.490
2314.80420.031
2414.45019.368
2514.11818.957
2613.74518.605
2713.55018.075
2813.25517.657
2912.96117.176
3012.61916.653
3112.34616.180
3212.13015.705
3311.89615.335
3411.66614.973
3511.45514.482
3611.23714.095
3711.02213.713
3810.78313.360
3910.53413.074
4010.32212.702
4110.08712.346
429.90012.086
439.70511.869
449.51611.573
459.30811.310
469.15111.018
478.96410.757
488.79510.420
498.58110.169
508.3989.900
518.2199.658
528.0669.420
537.8929.144
547.7428.883
557.5878.623
567.4318.311
577.2508.130
587.0777.948
596.9327.751
606.7817.496
616.6477.245
626.5047.064
636.3846.897
646.2396.694
656.0766.538
665.9456.381
675.8356.235
685.6886.047
695.5355.856
705.4055.721
715.2705.538
725.1305.392
734.9925.224
744.8615.076
754.7414.913
764.6224.769
774.5004.614
784.3574.473
794.2164.339
804.0784.166
813.9574.005
823.8123.855
833.6353.686
843.4713.546
853.3403.427
863.2033.268
873.0873.106
882.9362.978
892.7742.826
902.6652.659
912.5262.506
922.3582.328
932.1672.142
941.9931.920
951.8121.765
961.6081.588
971.3531.337
981.1101.125
990.7540.885


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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