Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Aug5.1342.5981.0210.2374.03619.120
Aug-Sep9.2264.5951.8230.2377.16427.263
Aug-Oct13.5055.7162.3230.3489.99638.406

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.39427.053
2013.45021.220
3011.32717.500
409.64814.171
508.26411.464
607.0718.852
705.8966.737
804.6074.772
903.2902.813

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.66542.032
223.08437.254
321.48435.379
420.34833.835
519.31232.691
618.60531.095
718.07129.969
817.36328.912
916.87127.853
1016.39427.053
1116.03726.386
1215.73225.645
1315.35425.080
1415.03624.511
1514.75823.882
1614.43323.379
1714.18522.788
1813.94822.182
1913.67621.646
2013.45021.220
2113.16020.807
2212.92920.345
2312.70120.020
2412.48919.545
2512.28919.245
2612.09018.987
2711.85818.591
2811.71318.275
2911.52317.907
3011.32717.500
3111.12017.126
3210.91016.745
3310.70916.442
3410.54316.143
3510.38615.732
3610.22215.401
3710.07715.071
389.92714.761
399.78814.507
409.64814.171
419.49113.846
429.31613.604
439.16713.401
449.02913.120
458.89712.868
468.77712.585
478.66512.329
488.53811.993
498.39911.739
508.26411.464
518.12011.215
528.00310.965
537.88810.674
547.76110.395
557.63910.112
567.5249.771
577.4219.569
587.3189.366
597.1819.143
607.0718.852
616.9388.562
626.8088.352
636.6958.156
646.5717.916
656.4507.730
666.3557.541
676.2417.365
686.1347.137
696.0286.904
705.8966.737
715.7666.510
725.6346.330
735.5186.119
745.3945.932
755.2465.727
765.1165.545
775.0035.347
784.8765.167
794.7674.995
804.6074.772
814.4784.565
824.3214.370
834.2154.151
844.0993.969
853.9873.814
863.8693.606
873.7043.396
883.5573.228
893.4063.030
903.2902.813
913.1562.614
923.0092.383
932.8362.142
942.6121.856
952.4091.657
962.1601.432
971.8051.116
981.4980.853
991.0190.561


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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