Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry



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Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Jan3.8652.0406.7480.1911.5793.557
Jan-Feb7.8666.0388.6600.2773.62460.369
Jan-Mar10.6077.33610.1390.5425.53074.796

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.19224.014
2011.06415.110
308.36711.085
406.5168.269
505.1966.387
604.1154.825
703.2133.692
802.3392.706
901.4491.749

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.77268.680
232.30550.618
327.54044.498
424.04839.890
522.33636.721
620.37932.648
719.29330.009
818.08727.701
916.99225.543
1016.19224.014
1115.42622.801
1214.80421.518
1314.17420.584
1413.58419.679
1512.95618.720
1612.54817.984
1712.03917.153
1811.81916.336
1911.41415.642
2011.06415.110
2110.71414.609
2210.39714.065
2310.06113.694
249.78513.165
259.57412.841
269.27012.567
279.00112.158
288.78511.839
298.59111.476
308.36711.085
318.17410.736
327.99410.389
337.81510.121
347.6069.860
357.4189.511
367.2209.237
377.0158.969
386.8118.723
396.6678.525
406.5168.269
416.3488.025
426.1947.848
436.0577.701
445.9487.501
455.7967.324
465.6587.129
475.5626.954
485.4346.731
495.3236.564
505.1966.387
515.0956.228
524.9736.072
534.8415.891
544.7325.722
554.6395.552
564.5215.351
574.4055.233
584.3145.116
594.2174.989
604.1154.825
614.0284.664
623.9444.548
633.8514.442
643.7614.312
653.6774.213
663.5844.112
673.4884.019
683.3903.900
693.2943.778
703.2133.692
713.1383.576
723.0143.484
732.9283.377
742.8413.283
752.7703.179
762.6743.088
772.5982.990
782.5242.901
792.4312.816
802.3392.706
812.2672.604
822.1782.509
832.1062.402
842.0372.313
851.9422.237
861.8572.136
871.7372.033
881.6381.952
891.5381.855
901.4491.749
911.3671.651
921.2741.537
931.1591.418
941.0361.276
950.8991.175
960.7481.061
970.6440.898
980.4810.761
990.3320.603


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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