Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry


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Product list for Barnard River above Barry



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Historical and exceedance probability for Barnard River above Barry ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1955) (GL)
Jan3.9166.7489.0340.1912.0343.557
Jan-Feb7.8808.66012.4290.2774.15060.369
Jan-Mar10.59910.13915.0760.5425.96374.796

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1071.15024.014
2050.84015.110
3039.90011.085
4031.9048.269
5025.7276.387
6020.7324.825
7016.4363.692
8012.2832.706
908.0321.749

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.24968.680
2127.45750.618
3114.34444.498
4104.26939.890
594.21336.721
686.84532.648
781.81530.009
878.19827.701
974.60525.543
1071.15024.014
1168.66722.801
1266.70321.518
1364.56520.584
1461.81019.679
1559.86318.720
1657.91317.984
1756.28317.153
1854.32516.336
1952.52315.642
2050.84015.110
2149.48714.609
2248.08414.065
2346.99913.694
2445.82913.165
2544.80512.841
2643.89812.567
2742.67412.158
2841.56311.839
2940.84211.476
3039.90011.085
3138.88710.736
3238.18810.389
3337.34310.121
3436.5469.860
3535.8809.511
3635.1969.237
3734.4478.969
3833.4938.723
3932.6918.525
4031.9048.269
4131.1858.025
4230.5267.848
4329.9067.701
4429.3657.501
4528.7547.324
4628.1777.129
4727.3806.954
4826.7836.731
4926.1056.564
5025.7276.387
5125.2916.228
5224.7246.072
5324.1585.891
5423.6225.722
5523.0615.552
5622.5445.351
5722.0375.233
5821.5535.116
5921.1514.989
6020.7324.825
6120.3274.664
6219.8184.548
6319.4454.442
6418.9034.312
6518.4924.213
6618.0474.112
6717.5774.019
6817.1953.900
6916.7943.778
7016.4363.692
7116.0513.576
7215.6613.484
7315.1913.377
7414.6933.283
7514.2963.179
7613.8483.088
7713.3872.990
7813.0252.901
7912.6972.816
8012.2832.706
8111.8882.604
8211.4852.509
8311.1122.402
8410.7102.313
8510.3032.237
869.9272.136
879.4502.033
888.9441.952
898.5211.855
908.0321.749
917.6011.651
927.2241.537
936.6991.418
946.2661.276
955.7091.175
965.1161.061
974.4170.898
983.8030.761
992.8080.603


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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