Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.73548.256
208.74431.881
307.14124.192
405.91818.653
504.90314.831
604.08811.558
703.2909.129
802.5186.931
901.6674.707

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.323128.858
219.69195.900
317.39884.864
416.03176.691
515.00170.881
614.11263.742
713.49359.053
812.86554.892
912.19251.014
1011.73548.256
1111.36446.064
1210.98143.749
1310.70942.040
1410.31840.362
159.96538.596
169.70037.252
179.46535.694
189.25434.164
199.02832.870
208.74431.881
218.58330.942
228.40429.880
238.25929.212
248.03528.196
257.86827.587
267.67227.065
277.52426.260
287.39825.636
297.27924.958
307.14124.192
317.00723.522
326.86922.828
336.75022.303
346.61521.816
356.47121.111
366.33720.583
376.22120.047
386.11519.566
396.02419.165
405.91818.653
415.80318.162
425.68717.811
435.56017.507
445.46817.107
455.36016.751
465.25516.346
475.15416.001
485.05615.543
494.97315.194
504.90314.831
514.82014.505
524.74314.188
534.66313.802
544.58113.461
554.50113.087
564.40112.680
574.32812.432
584.23712.181
594.16611.917
604.08811.558
614.01511.224
623.93510.979
633.85810.748
643.77510.475
653.69710.261
663.61710.043
673.5399.842
683.4629.582
693.3659.317
703.2909.129
713.1988.873
723.1068.670
733.0318.434
742.9508.225
752.8857.996
762.8147.792
772.7407.572
782.6437.371
792.5817.180
802.5186.931
812.4376.699
822.3726.481
832.2836.235
842.1946.031
852.1135.855
862.0295.620
871.9535.380
881.8645.188
891.7784.959
901.6674.707
911.5744.473
921.4604.199
931.3563.909
941.2483.559
951.1153.309
960.9263.024
970.7272.608
980.4412.251
990.0001.833


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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