Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1044.90742.695
2033.25127.235
3026.36420.053
4021.07514.975
5017.16711.567
6014.2548.733
7011.4066.676
808.5984.886
905.9203.150

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.847109.774
277.72084.539
368.78875.475
462.28768.442
557.82463.495
654.42356.997
751.02052.701
848.59348.890
946.69145.281
1044.90742.695
1143.56140.629
1241.83838.431
1340.42936.819
1439.16735.252
1537.95233.583
1636.87632.298
1735.84330.840
1834.91529.403
1933.96528.176
2033.25127.235
2132.40526.346
2231.47125.380
2330.88524.719
2430.25623.777
2529.63423.199
2628.91722.709
2728.32821.976
2827.63021.405
2927.02120.754
3026.36420.053
3125.86019.425
3225.33318.801
3324.76518.317
3424.19817.849
3523.61117.218
3623.14216.724
3722.67816.240
3822.09115.797
3921.57015.439
4021.07514.975
4120.66414.535
4220.28814.215
4319.86813.948
4419.40413.586
4519.03913.265
4618.62312.912
4718.25412.596
4817.86612.190
4917.54011.888
5017.16711.567
5116.82411.279
5216.50910.995
5316.21710.668
5416.01210.361
5515.71410.053
5615.4609.687
5715.1509.474
5814.8789.262
5914.6209.031
6014.2548.733
6113.9188.441
6213.6118.231
6313.2978.037
6413.0767.801
6512.7437.621
6612.4897.438
6712.2517.270
6812.0457.052
6911.7386.832
7011.4066.676
7111.1306.464
7210.8596.297
7310.5726.103
7410.3035.932
7510.0325.745
769.7705.580
779.5085.401
789.2275.239
798.9005.085
808.5984.886
818.3404.701
828.0934.528
837.8584.334
847.6754.173
857.3444.035
867.0503.852
876.8623.666
886.5883.518
896.1913.343
905.9203.150
915.6242.973
925.2982.768
934.9872.552
944.6572.294
954.2382.113
963.8591.907
973.3141.613
982.7621.364
991.8851.081


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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