Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1047.811120.556
2031.83367.796
3023.64945.807
4018.02531.582
5013.89322.735
6010.82515.896
708.23311.328
805.7337.628
903.5204.376

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1122.915382.508
293.037282.609
382.094246.352
472.788218.704
566.780198.729
661.512173.968
757.563157.674
854.065143.266
950.615129.940
1047.811120.556
1145.635113.172
1243.363105.455
1341.61399.821
1439.73994.351
1538.29488.660
1637.07784.380
1735.58479.483
1834.54274.737
1933.19370.784
2031.83367.796
2130.99164.989
2230.11361.854
2329.19559.902
2428.37956.968
2527.38355.229
2626.49753.749
2725.63951.488
2825.05149.754
2924.43447.888
3023.64945.807
3123.01344.006
3222.53542.163
3321.92040.786
3421.19139.519
3520.50337.706
3619.97136.363
3719.38535.016
3819.01233.819
3918.47732.832
4018.02531.582
4117.55130.399
4217.04329.559
4316.56228.840
4416.19627.901
4515.68127.071
4615.29026.139
4715.02625.351
4814.64524.316
4914.27623.537
5013.89322.735
5113.47622.021
5213.10921.333
5312.82720.505
5412.49119.782
5512.09318.999
5611.86218.156
5711.63317.650
5811.36017.140
5911.07116.610
6010.82515.896
6110.58415.240
6210.31814.765
6310.00914.320
649.76113.803
659.61013.398
669.34812.993
679.03912.620
688.79912.144
698.48911.666
708.23311.328
717.99210.876
727.72810.520
737.46610.112
747.1059.754
756.8279.365
766.6269.025
776.3758.661
786.1898.333
795.9458.024
805.7337.628
815.5377.264
825.2966.927
835.0716.553
844.8426.247
854.6335.987
864.4005.645
874.1585.302
883.9775.032
893.7954.717
903.5204.376
913.3404.067
923.1063.714
932.8263.352
942.4232.929
952.1472.639
961.8672.318
971.5851.875
981.1571.517
990.6051.129


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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