Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10181.828248.539
20126.992163.029
3094.610116.606
4071.19182.265
5053.94559.477
6041.04641.388
7030.16629.117
8019.84919.292
9010.81810.792

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1353.393493.362
2303.209413.978
3269.052382.977
4246.362357.575
5229.031338.825
6215.894312.857
7207.872294.696
8199.056277.806
9190.686261.051
10181.828248.539
11173.638238.213
12166.781226.880
13161.176218.337
14154.717209.828
15149.208200.543
16145.110193.231
17140.125184.765
18134.854176.234
19130.694168.813
20126.992163.029
21123.820157.497
22119.612151.411
23115.818147.204
24111.945141.145
25108.531137.395
26105.833134.197
27102.445129.384
2899.499125.613
2997.214121.288
3094.610116.606
3192.168112.394
3290.292108.190
3387.339104.924
3484.472101.753
3581.74797.478
3679.49494.127
3777.16590.843
3875.20287.835
3973.10285.405
4071.19182.265
4169.58779.290
4267.88177.124
4365.87575.326
4464.03472.893
4562.06370.744
4660.66868.381
4758.78366.277
4856.82663.586
4955.28061.592
5053.94559.477
5152.49757.594
5251.27955.745
5349.72453.626
5448.52151.644
5547.33749.677
5645.70747.351
5744.51046.008
5843.27344.673
5942.11643.234
6041.04641.388
6139.95039.592
6238.87238.310
6337.52537.134
6436.38535.720
6535.34234.641
6634.57433.558
6733.58232.564
6832.43131.293
6931.33730.017
7030.16629.117
7129.06827.910
7228.14726.964
7327.18525.876
7426.07124.925
7525.15523.892
7624.13822.989
7723.14422.026
7822.07821.155
7920.91120.338
8019.84919.292
8119.00418.334
8218.09017.446
8317.19816.463
8416.37015.660
8515.53014.981
8614.62214.087
8713.54013.193
8812.63212.492
8911.64011.673
9010.81810.792
919.8859.996
928.8419.090
937.8558.163
946.7517.089
955.4706.355
964.2875.548
973.0554.441
981.2903.558
990.0002.611


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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