Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10132.767133.718
20104.86993.720
3085.55570.154
4069.05651.292
5054.98237.934
6042.45026.830
7031.71019.065
8020.88512.731
9011.5077.176

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1205.088241.204
2186.637206.707
3177.482193.192
4166.441182.086
5157.930173.863
6151.705162.427
7146.423154.386
8141.137146.868
9137.277139.361
10132.767133.718
11128.939129.032
12125.636123.855
13121.557119.925
14118.409115.986
15115.784111.654
16113.832108.216
17111.619104.204
18109.535100.123
19107.10296.538
20104.86993.720
21102.47691.004
22100.25687.991
2398.11285.891
2496.05782.842
2593.98980.939
2692.09079.307
2790.21576.833
2888.98074.879
2987.66872.621
3085.55570.154
3183.43067.916
3281.77365.661
3379.91463.896
3478.15362.170
3576.61659.825
3674.62057.971
3773.32756.140
3871.76554.451
3970.34153.078
4069.05651.292
4167.61249.588
4266.59248.340
4365.12447.299
4463.44745.884
4562.03544.627
4660.63043.238
4759.45441.994
4857.98540.395
4956.58439.203
5054.98237.934
5153.45136.798
5252.07635.678
5350.70934.389
5449.34733.178
5547.92831.971
5646.79530.538
5745.62329.707
5844.40028.878
5943.52527.983
6042.45026.830
6141.46525.705
6240.25524.899
6339.32124.159
6438.17923.266
6537.13322.583
6635.99421.896
6734.58621.264
6833.45920.455
6932.72719.641
7031.71019.065
7130.75818.293
7229.61517.686
7328.41616.987
7427.48316.374
7526.50615.709
7625.49415.126
7724.07714.503
7823.07713.939
7922.04513.409
8020.88512.731
8119.97112.108
8219.11411.529
8318.17710.889
8417.22210.365
8516.1019.921
8615.2799.337
8714.3558.751
8813.4798.292
8912.4627.755
9011.5077.176
9110.3016.653
929.1866.056
938.1215.445
947.0784.735
956.0884.249
964.8123.715
973.5002.980
982.2922.393
991.0071.761


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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