Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1058.81782.919
2043.25355.263
3033.91541.096
4026.74030.663
5021.15223.537
6016.57117.589
7013.10913.286
809.6799.576
905.9656.035

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1119.703173.205
298.429142.747
389.883131.067
482.698121.622
577.128114.738
673.114105.343
769.49998.881
865.54092.960
962.43487.176
1058.81782.919
1156.98079.446
1254.53475.677
1353.06672.866
1451.48670.092
1549.79467.094
1648.28964.753
1746.79462.064
1845.36959.379
1944.22657.060
2043.25355.263
2142.14953.553
2240.94651.681
2339.92450.391
2438.78648.540
2537.84447.398
2637.08446.425
2736.27344.964
2835.38543.821
2934.67042.512
3033.91541.096
3133.18639.822
3232.27838.551
3331.49437.563
3430.46936.602
3529.55935.306
3629.04634.288
3728.48833.288
3827.92832.370
3927.39531.627
4026.74030.663
4126.05229.748
4225.33029.079
4324.68428.522
4424.18427.766
4523.66327.096
4623.07626.357
4722.61625.695
4822.25624.845
4921.59424.212
5021.15223.537
5120.71222.934
5220.19622.338
5319.68921.651
5419.29021.005
5518.79420.360
5618.39919.591
5717.95619.144
5817.54518.698
5917.02318.214
6016.57117.589
6116.19916.976
6215.84016.535
6315.49016.129
6415.11615.637
6514.80115.259
6614.48114.877
6714.12414.525
6813.73314.071
6913.41513.612
7013.10913.286
7112.67712.846
7212.38912.498
7312.10812.095
7411.70111.740
7511.33311.351
7611.04411.008
7710.73510.640
7810.41110.304
7910.0249.986
809.6799.576
819.2329.196
828.9218.840
838.5318.442
848.1278.113
857.8007.832
867.4937.458
877.1177.080
886.7176.779
896.3786.424
905.9656.035
915.5405.679
925.0985.266
934.7014.834
944.2794.322
953.8223.962
963.3553.557
972.7722.980
982.2242.499
991.3811.954


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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