Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.03448.256
2029.97431.881
3024.57924.192
4020.82818.653
5017.80214.831
6015.31711.558
7012.9019.129
8010.5296.931
907.7534.707

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
168.948128.858
257.95395.900
352.65984.864
449.11276.691
546.69470.881
644.76963.742
742.86059.053
840.88154.892
939.35651.014
1038.03448.256
1136.98946.064
1235.68843.749
1334.84742.040
1434.09740.362
1533.15238.596
1632.42237.252
1731.64635.694
1831.00634.164
1930.53732.870
2029.97431.881
2129.46230.942
2228.85029.880
2328.26529.212
2427.68428.196
2527.10627.587
2626.46827.065
2725.94326.260
2825.45425.636
2925.07524.958
3024.57924.192
3124.13523.522
3223.69222.828
3323.28522.303
3422.85321.816
3522.55721.111
3622.16720.583
3721.74920.047
3821.47419.566
3921.16019.165
4020.82818.653
4120.54218.162
4220.23517.811
4319.88717.507
4419.53617.107
4519.19516.751
4618.90616.346
4718.65716.001
4818.36715.543
4918.10015.194
5017.80214.831
5117.55014.505
5217.27114.188
5317.05413.802
5416.80513.461
5516.60713.087
5616.38012.680
5716.10912.432
5815.84512.181
5915.56811.917
6015.31711.558
6114.99711.224
6214.81510.979
6314.58210.748
6414.37510.475
6514.12510.261
6613.86810.043
6713.6559.842
6813.4199.582
6913.1839.317
7012.9019.129
7112.7048.873
7212.4588.670
7312.2398.434
7411.9958.225
7511.7407.996
7611.4757.792
7711.2727.572
7810.9897.371
7910.8047.180
8010.5296.931
8110.1616.699
829.9206.481
839.6656.235
849.3936.031
859.0845.855
868.8235.620
878.5345.380
888.3485.188
898.0144.959
907.7534.707
917.5214.473
927.1934.199
936.8523.909
946.3753.559
955.9353.309
965.4733.024
974.9912.608
984.2432.251
993.2831.833


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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