Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1066.14838.732
2052.34525.677
3044.09519.333
4036.95214.734
5031.05911.571
6026.3118.885
7021.6236.914
8017.1145.156
9012.1013.413

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1113.61289.924
297.41771.405
389.10864.539
482.74059.198
578.62555.258
675.51950.249
773.18146.856
870.62843.775
968.34040.847
1066.14838.732
1164.27437.033
1262.43235.220
1360.58533.870
1459.41332.537
1558.10731.124
1656.94330.042
1755.68828.784
1854.48127.540
1953.27026.486
2052.34525.677
2151.29324.907
2250.33724.034
2349.42923.484
2448.60022.647
2547.82222.144
2647.00621.713
2746.16121.047
2845.50120.530
2944.81419.968
3044.09519.333
3143.39118.776
3242.64518.200
3341.93817.765
3441.10917.360
3540.29016.775
3639.54916.336
3738.88215.891
3838.10315.491
3937.49715.159
4036.95214.734
4136.29014.327
4235.67414.035
4335.12813.784
4434.59113.452
4533.93013.157
4633.35412.823
4732.86712.537
4832.21212.158
4931.68311.871
5031.05911.571
5130.45411.302
5229.91711.041
5329.49510.723
5428.98010.443
5528.52910.136
5628.1149.802
5727.6749.599
5827.2299.394
5926.7549.178
6026.3118.885
6125.7758.612
6225.3538.413
6324.8328.225
6424.3538.003
6523.8927.829
6623.4417.653
6722.9907.490
6822.5697.280
6922.0717.066
7021.6236.914
7121.2756.708
7220.8576.545
7320.3676.356
7419.9156.188
7519.4606.004
7619.0825.842
7718.5625.666
7818.1645.506
7917.5695.354
8017.1145.156
8116.6144.973
8216.0804.800
8315.6624.606
8415.2394.446
8514.6704.308
8614.2474.123
8713.8153.936
8813.2253.786
8912.6733.608
9012.1013.413
9111.3963.232
9210.8123.021
939.9762.799
949.1962.532
958.4442.343
967.7152.128
976.8991.817
986.0331.553
994.4631.247


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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