Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.21582.919
2026.38655.263
3020.19941.096
4015.64030.663
5012.30423.537
609.53717.589
707.22313.286
805.1519.576
902.9706.035

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
188.897173.205
270.559142.747
362.034131.067
456.628121.622
552.113114.738
648.183105.343
744.80298.881
841.97192.960
939.91187.176
1038.21582.919
1136.74379.446
1235.37475.677
1333.64972.866
1432.13670.092
1531.44567.094
1630.49364.753
1729.42162.064
1828.30259.379
1927.49657.060
2026.38655.263
2125.65253.553
2225.00351.681
2324.35150.391
2423.66048.540
2523.08147.398
2622.45346.425
2721.85344.964
2821.28243.821
2920.82242.512
3020.19941.096
3119.83339.822
3219.25538.551
3318.76737.563
3418.18736.602
3517.66535.306
3617.37134.288
3716.88233.288
3816.45732.370
3916.07931.627
4015.64030.663
4115.28729.748
4214.87829.079
4314.63028.522
4414.30527.766
4514.04727.096
4613.63126.357
4713.31225.695
4812.95524.845
4912.61924.212
5012.30423.537
5112.01222.934
5211.72122.338
5311.49921.651
5411.18821.005
5510.79420.360
5610.53019.591
5710.26619.144
589.99118.698
599.74718.214
609.53717.589
619.29116.976
629.00016.535
638.74116.129
648.49315.637
658.33715.259
668.14914.877
677.89114.525
687.66014.071
697.45513.612
707.22313.286
717.00712.846
726.82112.498
736.64812.095
746.44211.740
756.22011.351
766.05111.008
775.85510.640
785.64210.304
795.4029.986
805.1519.576
814.9189.196
824.7158.840
834.4798.442
844.3048.113
854.0457.832
863.8947.458
873.6657.080
883.4716.779
893.2286.424
902.9706.035
912.7125.679
922.4985.266
932.2514.834
941.9404.322
951.6793.962
961.4193.557
971.0962.980
980.7042.499
990.0721.954


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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