Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.6207.325
Median12.76615.189
Mean19.49727.294
75% Quartile24.23931.640
Interquartile Range17.62024.315

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1109.820203.652
286.491141.348
373.350121.704
464.175107.587
557.83997.782
654.03486.008
750.24678.446
846.49571.852
943.95265.808
1041.74861.571
1139.77158.243
1237.78754.764
1336.18552.221
1434.57249.746
1533.27347.164
1631.98145.215
1731.10042.975
1830.10240.793
1929.06538.964
2028.19237.576
2127.35536.265
2226.43234.792
2325.55933.871
2424.82332.479
2524.24231.650
2623.66530.941
2722.98729.853
2822.30729.014
2921.71428.107
3021.10527.089
3120.54526.202
3220.07125.289
3319.51824.603
3418.98723.968
3518.53723.055
3617.96322.374
3717.57821.686
3817.13621.072
3916.61520.563
4016.27419.915
4115.81919.297
4215.43918.856
4315.04218.477
4414.69217.979
4514.32817.537
4613.98317.038
4713.67616.614
4813.40416.053
4913.06315.629
5012.76615.189
5112.53314.795
5212.26014.413
5311.99613.951
5411.68913.545
5511.38813.102
5611.11512.622
5710.87912.332
5810.61012.038
5910.33411.731
6010.10511.315
619.77210.929
629.57010.649
639.36410.385
649.15810.075
658.9369.832
668.7659.586
678.5609.360
688.2959.069
698.0758.774
707.8588.565
717.5738.283
727.3408.060
737.1247.801
746.8827.574
756.6197.325
766.4127.106
776.2116.870
785.9916.655
795.7756.451
805.5926.189
815.3105.945
825.0875.717
834.8975.463
844.6585.252
854.3855.072
864.1664.833
873.9044.590
883.6924.398
893.4594.170
903.2903.921
912.9803.692
922.7363.427
932.5133.150
942.2862.820
952.0202.588
961.7132.327
971.4421.954
981.0451.643
990.3861.289


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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