Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.0885.745
Median18.95411.567
Mean24.66218.706
75% Quartile32.47423.198
Interquartile Range21.38617.453

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
195.931109.774
283.68984.539
373.96475.475
466.79068.442
562.70563.495
659.07356.997
755.34252.701
852.82948.890
950.66145.281
1049.00642.695
1147.22040.629
1245.57938.431
1344.12036.819
1442.81335.252
1541.62033.583
1640.42132.298
1739.13630.840
1838.11729.403
1937.09828.176
2036.43527.235
2135.57026.346
2234.56425.380
2333.78524.719
2433.03923.777
2532.47523.199
2631.65322.709
2731.00521.976
2830.26221.405
2929.63520.754
3028.90120.053
3128.26419.425
3227.73618.801
3327.12118.317
3426.57017.849
3525.94917.218
3625.38616.724
3724.88116.240
3824.31115.797
3923.83815.439
4023.25714.975
4122.68414.535
4222.27114.215
4321.88613.948
4421.33113.586
4520.95413.265
4620.56812.912
4720.10412.596
4819.71412.190
4919.34311.888
5018.95411.567
5118.51011.279
5218.21710.995
5317.89910.668
5417.58610.361
5517.32610.053
5617.0419.687
5716.7129.474
5816.3769.262
5916.0789.031
6015.6828.733
6115.3728.441
6215.0078.231
6314.6488.037
6414.3917.801
6514.0967.621
6613.8037.438
6713.5407.270
6813.3127.052
6912.9606.832
7012.6356.676
7112.2846.464
7211.9696.297
7311.6586.103
7411.3685.932
7511.0875.745
7610.7765.580
7710.5045.401
7810.1875.239
799.8325.085
809.5004.886
819.2664.701
828.9724.528
838.7054.334
848.4674.173
858.1154.035
867.8603.852
877.6033.666
887.3053.518
896.8583.343
906.5723.150
916.2252.973
925.9022.768
935.5552.552
945.1552.294
954.7492.113
964.2921.907
973.7001.613
983.0791.364
992.1151.081


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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