Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.3999.366
Median22.43922.735
Mean33.80748.495
75% Quartile43.67055.209
Interquartile Range32.27045.843

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1180.282382.508
2142.155282.609
3123.475246.352
4109.348218.704
5100.312198.729
693.394173.968
788.159157.674
883.225143.266
978.419129.940
1074.211120.556
1171.463113.172
1267.973105.455
1364.82199.821
1461.89794.351
1559.71688.660
1657.58484.380
1755.44779.483
1853.65174.737
1952.03770.784
2050.37267.796
2148.79064.989
2247.49161.854
2346.05259.902
2445.08456.968
2543.67555.229
2642.43453.749
2740.94551.488
2839.71549.754
2938.38247.888
3037.29445.807
3136.26744.006
3235.39142.163
3334.62140.786
3433.69239.519
3532.86337.706
3632.01336.363
3731.14435.016
3830.20333.819
3929.47332.832
4028.71331.582
4127.97930.399
4227.26929.559
4326.48528.840
4425.89527.901
4525.18927.071
4624.49026.139
4723.93625.351
4823.48224.316
4923.04223.537
5022.43922.735
5121.90422.021
5221.41221.333
5320.88920.505
5420.28919.782
5519.74718.999
5619.26918.156
5718.79917.650
5818.35817.140
5917.89716.610
6017.44915.896
6117.01615.240
6216.62414.765
6316.19414.320
6415.79513.803
6515.43413.398
6615.03512.993
6714.58112.620
6814.11112.144
6913.72411.666
7013.27711.328
7112.86910.876
7212.54010.520
7312.12610.112
7411.7169.754
7511.3979.365
7611.0599.025
7710.6658.661
7810.3408.333
7910.0218.024
809.6267.628
819.2857.264
828.8766.927
838.5346.553
848.1686.247
857.8185.987
867.4365.645
877.1035.302
886.7585.032
896.3764.717
906.0604.376
915.7084.067
925.3943.714
934.9733.352
944.4362.929
953.8892.639
963.4932.318
972.9471.875
982.3431.517
991.7141.129


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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