Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile17.09015.444
Median37.83338.001
Mean58.12674.239
75% Quartile80.25191.962
Interquartile Range63.16176.518

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1271.857478.084
2228.844379.103
3206.395341.321
4189.506310.936
5175.742288.927
6166.345259.167
7158.334238.939
8151.097220.626
9143.460202.984
10137.612190.179
11132.407179.862
12126.350168.812
13121.450160.674
14116.702152.736
15112.807144.267
16109.065137.741
17105.452130.342
18102.309123.055
1998.942116.854
2094.297112.108
2190.833107.640
2287.653102.803
2384.83399.505
2482.80794.823
2580.25191.964
2678.39289.548
2775.71185.951
2873.42783.164
2971.12780.001
3068.94176.616
3166.85173.605
3265.15770.630
3363.14268.339
3460.86866.131
3558.99463.180
3657.04760.886
3755.46158.654
3853.95856.623
3952.34154.990
4050.72152.893
4148.93150.916
4247.28349.485
4346.27748.299
4445.24446.703
4543.80045.297
4642.38743.757
4740.97842.390
4839.96740.648
4938.99939.362
5037.83338.001
5136.94136.792
5235.74135.607
5334.79034.253
5433.80032.989
5532.89231.736
5631.84830.259
5730.94029.406
5829.87628.560
5929.14527.649
6028.31526.481
6127.60625.346
6226.64924.537
6325.98623.795
6425.01922.902
6524.34122.222
6623.51521.539
6722.72020.912
6821.99220.111
6921.26319.307
7020.59218.739
7119.89417.978
7219.10717.381
7318.56216.695
7417.77016.095
7517.08815.443
7616.25814.873
7715.64814.264
7815.07813.713
7914.43313.197
8013.75312.534
8113.09311.927
8212.67211.364
8312.03710.740
8411.29210.230
8510.6629.797
8610.2459.228
879.7238.657
889.1128.210
898.3587.686
907.7097.121
917.2296.610
926.5466.027
935.9825.429
945.3184.733
954.6714.256
963.7153.730
972.9323.005
982.1102.423
991.0081.794


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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