Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


  • Jan

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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile27.86923.894
Median59.93459.477
Mean85.78599.368
75% Quartile118.561137.393
Interquartile Range90.692113.499

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1373.720493.362
2319.076413.978
3283.965382.977
4262.112357.575
5242.660338.825
6230.827312.857
7219.332294.696
8213.115277.806
9203.797261.051
10195.577248.539
11187.248238.213
12180.068226.880
13173.709218.337
14167.704209.828
15162.020200.543
16156.749193.231
17151.451184.765
18146.857176.234
19143.107168.813
20138.967163.029
21134.550157.497
22130.851151.411
23127.050147.204
24123.526141.145
25118.563137.395
26115.496134.197
27112.441129.384
28108.958125.613
29106.077121.288
30103.399116.606
31100.518112.394
3298.217108.190
3395.824104.924
3492.942101.753
3590.46597.478
3688.12294.127
3785.45890.843
3883.72087.835
3980.53285.405
4078.46682.265
4176.49879.290
4274.89077.124
4372.80575.326
4470.51872.893
4568.45070.744
4666.62168.381
4765.13666.277
4863.24363.586
4961.77561.592
5059.93459.477
5158.20357.594
5256.57155.745
5355.12153.626
5453.52851.644
5552.01949.677
5650.64647.351
5749.43346.008
5848.31344.673
5947.16843.234
6045.89641.388
6144.42639.592
6242.87238.310
6341.55037.134
6440.53635.720
6539.22934.641
6637.96133.558
6737.03832.564
6836.00831.293
6934.85030.017
7033.43729.117
7132.53027.910
7231.52226.964
7330.20625.876
7428.83824.925
7527.84123.892
7626.76722.989
7725.54122.026
7824.32921.155
7923.38620.338
8022.38119.292
8121.41618.334
8220.46817.446
8319.50716.463
8418.55615.660
8517.58414.981
8616.54314.087
8715.40013.193
8814.36012.492
8913.32911.673
9012.29110.792
9111.2029.996
9210.0439.090
939.1098.163
947.7927.089
956.5116.355
965.3725.548
973.7424.441
982.0973.558
990.0692.611


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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