Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree



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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree ( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile17.575
Median41.453
Mean73.608
75% Quartile95.142
Interquartile Range77.567

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1420.311
2340.846
3310.270
4285.514
5267.458
6242.827
7225.907
8210.437
9195.373
10184.326
11175.347
12165.646
13158.442
14151.363
15143.751
16137.839
17131.089
18124.388
19118.641
20114.215
21110.025
22105.464
23102.339
2497.880
2595.143
2692.824
2789.356
2886.659
2983.586
3080.282
3177.331
3274.403
3372.140
3469.952
3567.018
3664.728
3762.493
3860.453
3958.808
4056.690
4154.688
4253.234
4352.028
4450.400
4548.963
4647.385
4745.981
4844.188
4942.860
5041.453
5140.200
5238.969
5337.559
5436.240
5534.931
5633.382
5732.486
5831.595
5930.635
6029.401
6128.198
6227.339
6326.551
6425.601
6524.875
6624.145
6723.474
6822.615
6921.751
7021.140
7120.320
7219.675
7318.933
7418.282
7517.574
7616.954
7716.290
7815.689
7915.123
8014.397
8113.730
8213.109
8312.420
8411.856
8511.376
8610.743
8710.107
889.607
899.020
908.385
917.808
927.148
936.468
945.673
955.125
964.517
973.673
982.989
992.242


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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