Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree



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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile14.28115.710
Median33.63037.934
Mean45.76656.348
75% Quartile67.21280.938
Interquartile Range52.93165.229

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1175.937241.204
2158.038206.707
3147.055193.192
4135.316182.086
5127.908173.863
6122.528162.427
7117.197154.386
8112.530146.868
9107.568139.361
10104.288133.718
11100.040129.032
1295.980123.855
1393.077119.925
1490.162115.986
1587.766111.654
1685.151108.216
1783.224104.204
1881.314100.123
1979.31596.538
2076.98093.720
2174.90491.004
2273.14287.991
2371.12685.891
2469.44382.842
2567.22780.939
2665.44779.307
2763.79276.833
2862.16774.879
2960.43972.621
3058.66370.154
3157.04467.916
3255.25065.661
3353.75463.896
3452.21162.170
3550.79359.825
3649.88657.971
3748.53556.140
3847.40754.451
3946.19953.078
4045.03051.292
4143.75349.588
4242.65548.340
4341.63047.299
4440.51745.884
4539.41244.627
4638.25943.238
4737.28041.994
4836.01440.395
4934.88239.203
5033.63037.934
5132.42736.798
5231.61635.678
5330.38434.389
5429.37833.178
5528.67331.971
5627.81830.538
5726.93129.707
5826.06928.878
5925.13127.983
6024.38626.830
6123.77025.705
6223.21224.899
6322.41324.159
6421.47623.266
6520.67922.583
6620.02421.896
6719.41321.264
6818.68620.455
6918.06219.641
7017.60319.065
7117.01718.293
7216.35117.686
7315.72916.987
7414.91416.374
7514.28015.709
7613.36115.126
7712.80114.503
7812.14513.939
7911.33113.409
8010.89412.731
8110.37712.108
829.78211.529
839.25410.889
848.69710.365
858.1509.921
867.6749.337
877.0738.751
886.5628.292
896.0107.755
905.4977.176
914.9696.653
924.3226.056
933.6795.445
943.0574.735
952.4374.249
961.8753.715
971.1042.980
980.5792.393
990.0001.761


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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