Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree



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Probability distribution for Richmond River at Wiangaree ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile17.35323.894
Median39.63859.477
Mean61.58699.368
75% Quartile82.913137.393
Interquartile Range65.559113.499

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1307.196493.362
2254.659413.978
3226.297382.977
4208.225357.575
5194.067338.825
6178.793312.857
7170.370294.696
8162.122277.806
9152.136261.051
10144.816248.539
11137.770238.213
12131.898226.880
13126.874218.337
14121.833209.828
15116.855200.543
16113.705193.231
17109.233184.765
18104.717176.234
19101.516168.813
2098.443163.029
2194.718157.497
2291.919151.411
2388.391147.204
2485.946141.145
2582.920137.395
2680.497134.197
2778.616129.384
2876.293125.613
2974.269121.288
3072.039116.606
3169.461112.394
3267.190108.190
3365.093104.924
3462.978101.753
3561.31297.478
3659.53794.127
3757.59490.843
3855.63487.835
3953.98585.405
4052.10682.265
4150.64379.290
4249.64277.124
4348.50075.326
4447.29572.893
4545.76670.744
4644.26268.381
4742.93566.277
4841.69563.586
4940.66861.592
5039.63859.477
5138.33157.594
5237.30455.745
5336.01953.626
5435.17251.644
5534.33049.677
5633.31547.351
5732.34446.008
5831.46844.673
5930.53043.234
6029.49941.388
6128.71239.592
6227.93238.310
6327.13937.134
6426.38535.720
6525.58534.641
6624.62933.558
6723.91532.564
6823.10631.293
6922.12530.017
7021.33329.117
7120.65227.910
7219.70326.964
7319.10325.876
7418.30424.925
7517.31323.892
7616.80822.989
7716.11522.026
7815.39721.155
7914.57220.338
8013.83019.292
8113.00418.334
8212.20117.446
8311.62216.463
8410.84415.660
8510.30614.981
869.54214.087
878.96613.193
888.22112.492
897.54711.673
906.84010.792
916.1209.996
925.3969.090
934.6248.163
943.8277.089
952.9586.355
961.9425.548
970.9354.441
980.0003.558
990.0002.611


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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