Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


Return to catchment list
Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1972) (GL)
Aug6.4776.2071.0816.6136.021
Aug-Sep11.4479.9141.61210.7219.440
Aug-Oct18.60811.7252.19818.65075.333

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.67038.732
209.41825.677
307.30419.333
405.81914.734
504.63511.571
603.6618.885
702.8626.914
802.1245.156
901.1743.413

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.12589.924
225.61871.405
322.24064.539
420.28859.198
518.55755.258
617.16150.249
716.08446.856
815.06443.775
914.29740.847
1013.67038.732
1112.94637.033
1212.36235.220
1311.90933.870
1411.55732.537
1511.23031.124
1610.73830.042
1710.41228.784
1810.08227.540
199.74826.486
209.41825.677
219.11824.907
228.90424.034
238.68923.484
248.48522.647
258.27122.144
268.06321.713
277.84321.047
287.65720.530
297.41419.968
307.30419.333
317.14818.776
326.98918.200
336.84017.765
346.71417.360
356.53716.775
366.39216.336
376.25215.891
386.09515.491
395.96815.159
405.81914.734
415.70014.327
425.57614.035
435.45713.784
445.31613.452
455.17013.157
465.06212.823
474.93112.537
484.82412.158
494.72811.871
504.63511.571
514.51811.302
524.41311.041
534.30310.723
544.20710.443
554.13610.136
564.0439.802
573.9519.599
583.8489.394
593.7489.178
603.6618.885
613.5848.612
623.5078.413
633.4028.225
643.3248.003
653.2497.829
663.1517.653
673.0847.490
683.0157.280
692.9387.066
702.8626.914
712.7976.708
722.7096.545
732.6196.356
742.5456.188
752.4696.004
762.4025.842
772.3475.666
782.2815.506
792.1915.354
802.1245.156
812.0104.973
821.9134.800
831.8194.606
841.7514.446
851.6644.308
861.5764.123
871.5043.936
881.3813.786
891.2773.608
901.1743.413
911.0823.232
920.9543.021
930.8342.799
940.7272.532
950.5942.343
960.4672.128
970.2771.817
980.1191.553
990.0001.247


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence