Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct7.4016.6572.8890.5867.73156.536
Oct-Nov14.60113.7905.2271.09213.62571.750
Oct-Dec29.49423.9308.3431.53732.837215.211

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1059.11061.571
2039.91937.576
3030.34927.089
4023.25119.915
5018.66215.189
6014.74911.315
7011.5218.565
808.2236.189
905.0883.921

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1146.733203.652
2118.194141.348
399.475121.704
489.613107.587
581.33297.782
675.29186.008
769.99078.446
864.95771.852
962.06265.808
1059.11061.571
1155.60658.243
1253.27054.764
1351.16552.221
1449.63449.746
1547.52747.164
1645.51045.215
1744.16142.975
1842.64640.793
1941.58638.964
2039.91937.576
2138.92636.265
2237.63434.792
2336.33033.871
2435.63232.479
2534.61531.650
2633.73430.941
2732.81829.853
2831.92229.014
2931.27828.107
3030.34927.089
3129.45626.202
3228.72425.289
3328.07224.603
3427.30023.968
3526.57723.055
3625.93322.374
3725.27821.686
3824.66121.072
3923.96120.563
4023.25119.915
4122.70319.297
4222.22618.856
4321.76918.477
4421.27817.979
4520.77717.537
4620.29517.038
4719.79816.614
4819.43516.053
4919.05415.629
5018.66215.189
5118.22614.795
5217.82914.413
5317.37313.951
5417.03013.545
5516.64613.102
5616.28312.622
5715.80712.332
5815.40012.038
5915.06611.731
6014.74911.315
6114.41010.929
6214.09410.649
6313.75510.385
6413.45710.075
6513.1089.832
6612.7869.586
6712.4639.360
6812.1629.069
6911.8338.774
7011.5218.565
7111.2348.283
7210.8868.060
7310.5517.801
7410.2377.574
759.9417.325
769.6077.106
779.2026.870
788.8796.655
798.5676.451
808.2236.189
817.9315.945
827.6255.717
837.4115.463
847.0625.252
856.7865.072
866.4004.833
875.9894.590
885.6664.398
895.3424.170
905.0883.921
914.6983.692
924.3983.427
934.0863.150
943.7222.820
953.2692.588
962.8492.327
972.3841.954
981.8271.643
991.1551.289


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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