Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2001) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Dec14.89310.1413.1160.99119.212103.303
Dec-Jan45.56493.13295.4641.64077.721210.970
Dec-Feb77.635132.015206.9843.34898.850421.335

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10120.706190.179
2080.719112.108
3057.95876.616
4042.45552.893
5031.40938.001
6023.48826.481
7016.82818.739
8011.22212.534
906.3387.121

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1250.606478.084
2206.912379.103
3187.178341.321
4169.893310.936
5156.701288.927
6147.989259.167
7139.864238.939
8133.284220.626
9125.952202.984
10120.706190.179
11115.416179.862
12110.045168.812
13105.286160.674
14101.454152.736
1596.794144.267
1693.472137.741
1790.838130.342
1887.622123.055
1983.807116.854
2080.719112.108
2177.395107.640
2275.169102.803
2372.54199.505
2470.22294.823
2568.66291.964
2666.34689.548
2763.78985.951
2862.04983.164
2959.85480.001
3057.95876.616
3156.19173.605
3254.21470.630
3352.72968.339
3451.05166.131
3549.39363.180
3647.88060.886
3746.50758.654
3844.98256.623
3943.78454.990
4042.45552.893
4141.16950.916
4239.94249.485
4338.89848.299
4437.62646.703
4536.46845.297
4635.23043.757
4734.16342.390
4833.14940.648
4932.50539.362
5031.40938.001
5130.38336.792
5229.60735.607
5328.72634.253
5427.93832.989
5527.25031.736
5626.43030.259
5725.61129.406
5824.85628.560
5924.04727.649
6023.48826.481
6122.73025.346
6222.08024.537
6321.34923.795
6420.53922.902
6520.07122.222
6619.52021.539
6718.82120.912
6818.16720.111
6917.56219.307
7016.82818.739
7116.20317.978
7215.63617.381
7315.19216.695
7414.61216.095
7513.89615.443
7613.39414.873
7712.85114.264
7812.37313.713
7911.79913.197
8011.22212.534
8110.69411.927
8210.26011.364
839.82410.740
849.30510.230
858.7999.797
868.2569.228
877.8798.657
887.3178.210
896.8597.686
906.3387.121
915.8356.610
925.2536.027
934.7575.429
944.2184.733
953.6034.256
962.8433.730
972.2753.005
981.5352.423
990.6231.794


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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