Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Feb32.07238.883111.5200.78821.129210.364
Feb-Mar73.75266.795192.0551.47644.600341.673
Feb-Apr104.46289.417214.0182.35760.640386.302

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10253.779
20176.612
30130.139
4092.542
5066.102
6044.691
7030.310
8019.143
909.974

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1456.519
2391.740
3366.319
4345.403
5329.897
6308.295
7293.073
8278.811
9264.536
10253.779
11244.826
12234.914
13227.372
14219.795
15211.444
16204.800
17197.027
18189.098
19182.115
20176.612
21171.297
22165.387
23161.261
24155.258
25151.506
26148.282
27143.388
28139.518
29135.039
30130.139
31125.687
32121.198
33117.681
34114.239
35109.561
36105.861
37102.208
3898.839
3996.100
4092.542
4189.148
4286.666
4384.596
4481.787
4579.295
4676.545
4774.088
4870.936
4968.593
5066.102
5163.881
5261.695
5359.188
5456.840
5554.509
5651.753
5750.160
5848.579
5946.875
6044.691
6142.569
6241.058
6339.674
6438.012
6536.746
6635.478
6734.317
6832.836
6931.353
7030.310
7128.917
7227.827
7326.579
7425.492
7524.316
7623.292
7722.203
7821.224
7920.309
8019.143
8118.082
8217.102
8316.025
8415.152
8514.416
8613.454
8712.499
8811.755
8910.894
909.974
919.151
928.224
937.287
946.218
955.499
964.719
973.675
982.863
992.022


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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