Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


Return to catchment list
Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1972) (GL)
Sep5.0004.3483.7070.5313.8913.419
Sep-Oct12.2917.2375.5181.11711.85269.312
Sep-Nov19.3729.5757.6261.62317.930101.881

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1041.52042.695
2030.41327.235
3024.24120.053
4019.22414.975
5015.66411.567
6013.0308.733
7010.3836.676
807.8174.886
905.3743.150

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.868109.774
272.92984.539
364.12375.475
457.86468.442
553.45063.495
650.62356.997
747.38652.701
845.06948.890
943.16545.281
1041.52042.695
1140.14440.629
1238.56138.431
1337.26536.819
1436.01935.252
1534.78233.583
1633.91832.298
1732.96530.840
1832.10829.403
1931.14428.176
2030.41327.235
2129.59926.346
2228.88125.380
2328.34524.719
2427.81023.777
2527.10423.199
2626.60522.709
2726.05721.976
2825.29921.405
2924.79520.754
3024.24120.053
3123.70919.425
3223.19018.801
3322.67418.317
3422.15717.849
3521.72817.218
3621.25616.724
3720.72516.240
3820.19615.797
3919.69315.439
4019.22414.975
4118.89514.535
4218.56614.215
4318.13813.948
4417.73013.586
4517.32013.265
4616.97512.912
4716.67012.596
4816.32012.190
4916.00311.888
5015.66411.567
5115.34911.279
5215.07210.995
5314.81810.668
5414.57510.361
5514.31510.053
5614.0779.687
5713.8089.474
5813.5659.262
5913.2769.031
6013.0308.733
6112.7088.441
6212.4098.231
6312.1578.037
6411.9257.801
6511.6297.621
6611.3837.438
6711.1707.270
6810.9587.052
6910.6736.832
7010.3836.676
7110.1286.464
729.8786.297
739.6286.103
749.3825.932
759.1375.745
768.8645.580
778.6355.401
788.4095.239
798.1215.085
807.8174.886
817.5684.701
827.3654.528
837.1454.334
846.9584.173
856.6754.035
866.4313.852
876.2243.666
885.9443.518
895.6403.343
905.3743.150
915.1002.973
924.8062.768
934.5222.552
944.2202.294
953.8632.113
963.4811.907
972.9761.613
982.4491.364
991.6831.081


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence