Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree



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Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Mar42.60580.53521.2340.68830.48147.161
Mar-Apr73.108102.49926.2311.56948.109327.938
Mar-May98.842111.13128.7514.00463.767414.964

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10238.189
20167.414
30124.795
4090.127
5065.450
6045.116
7031.178
8020.120
9010.800

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1424.658
2365.034
3341.643
4322.402
5308.140
6288.277
7274.285
8261.179
9248.067
10238.189
11229.970
12220.873
13213.953
14207.002
15199.344
16193.252
17186.126
18178.858
19172.458
20167.414
21162.544
22157.128
23153.346
24147.843
25144.402
26141.446
27136.958
28133.406
29129.295
30124.795
31120.704
32116.577
33113.341
34110.172
35105.860
36102.447
3799.073
3895.958
3993.424
4090.127
4186.978
4284.672
4382.747
4480.132
4577.808
4675.241
4772.943
4869.990
4967.791
5065.450
5163.358
5261.297
5358.927
5456.704
5554.491
5651.869
5750.350
5848.840
5947.210
6045.116
6143.077
6241.620
6340.284
6438.677
6537.451
6636.220
6735.090
6833.647
6932.199
7031.178
7129.811
7228.740
7327.511
7426.437
7525.274
7624.258
7723.176
7822.201
7921.287
8020.120
8119.054
8218.068
8316.981
8416.097
8515.350
8614.372
8713.396
8812.634
8911.749
9010.800
919.947
928.983
938.003
946.877
956.116
965.285
974.162
983.279
992.352


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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