Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree



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Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Jan25.6533.306174.0361.25033.050107.667
Jan-Feb57.75514.895198.1142.03858.377318.031
Jan-Mar100.30339.823219.7182.72685.027449.340

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10403.114248.539
20321.459163.029
30269.809116.606
40224.68682.265
50186.39159.477
60148.52541.388
70115.64329.117
8084.39619.292
9051.78810.792

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1642.096493.362
2578.904413.978
3540.808382.977
4504.911357.575
5482.108338.825
6463.130312.857
7445.415294.696
8429.615277.806
9413.903261.051
10403.114248.539
11394.222238.213
12383.118226.880
13372.578218.337
14363.928209.828
15355.056200.543
16348.378193.231
17340.913184.765
18334.845176.234
19329.456168.813
20321.459163.029
21315.724157.497
22309.433151.411
23304.218147.204
24298.849141.145
25294.469137.395
26288.568134.197
27283.628129.384
28278.738125.613
29274.024121.288
30269.809116.606
31266.099112.394
32261.363108.190
33257.209104.924
34251.882101.753
35247.14397.478
36242.30794.127
37237.11290.843
38232.71987.835
39229.00385.405
40224.68682.265
41221.12679.290
42217.70477.124
43212.81375.326
44208.71072.893
45204.62070.744
46201.01068.381
47196.70766.277
48193.06763.586
49190.09861.592
50186.39159.477
51182.60257.594
52178.97755.745
53174.78353.626
54171.40051.644
55167.53849.677
56164.19047.351
57160.07146.008
58156.01344.673
59151.48643.234
60148.52541.388
61145.42539.592
62142.44638.310
63139.27537.134
64136.07935.720
65132.46734.641
66128.87833.558
67124.50932.564
68121.41131.293
69118.54530.017
70115.64329.117
71113.13727.910
72110.46326.964
73107.25125.876
74103.99624.925
75100.58223.892
7697.47522.989
7793.65322.026
7890.35621.155
7987.42620.338
8084.39619.292
8180.81018.334
8277.35917.446
8374.06716.463
8471.28215.660
8567.92914.981
8664.90814.087
8761.00613.193
8857.61812.492
8954.51511.673
9051.78810.792
9147.7999.996
9243.6279.090
9339.7058.163
9435.5367.089
9531.4546.355
9627.3265.548
9722.9364.441
9817.8533.558
9910.7572.611


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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