Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree


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Product list for Richmond River at Wiangaree



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Historical and exceedance probability for Richmond River at Wiangaree ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Jan29.362174.03682.9911.25050.276107.667
Jan-Feb61.264198.114121.8742.03867.687318.031
Jan-Mar103.288219.718149.7862.72688.594449.340

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10288.790248.539
20222.822163.029
30174.946116.606
40139.98882.265
50111.13959.477
6086.08841.388
7065.03229.117
8045.74019.292
9027.08810.792

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1493.266493.362
2436.547413.978
3399.107382.977
4371.195357.575
5349.682338.825
6331.701312.857
7322.055294.696
8309.489277.806
9298.668261.051
10288.790248.539
11281.658238.213
12272.665226.880
13265.623218.337
14259.404209.828
15250.579200.543
16243.434193.231
17238.279184.765
18233.064176.234
19228.281168.813
20222.822163.029
21216.012157.497
22210.745151.411
23205.383147.204
24201.140141.145
25197.035137.395
26191.576134.197
27187.613129.384
28183.641125.613
29179.162121.288
30174.946116.606
31170.965112.394
32166.614108.190
33164.017104.924
34160.652101.753
35157.22397.478
36153.66694.127
37149.94990.843
38146.80287.835
39143.60485.405
40139.98882.265
41136.71879.290
42133.41677.124
43130.65775.326
44127.08472.893
45124.07770.744
46121.49568.381
47119.18966.277
48116.63563.586
49114.26361.592
50111.13959.477
51107.97957.594
52105.35155.745
53102.63053.626
54100.34451.644
5597.57149.677
5695.41347.351
5792.61246.008
5890.10144.673
5988.11643.234
6086.08841.388
6183.60139.592
6281.59338.310
6378.83737.134
6476.85435.720
6574.80134.641
6672.89133.558
6771.36832.564
6869.28631.293
6966.71930.017
7065.03229.117
7163.19027.910
7261.26026.964
7359.25425.876
7457.14024.925
7555.48923.892
7653.72022.989
7751.54722.026
7849.39221.155
7947.40120.338
8045.74019.292
8144.20018.334
8241.81117.446
8340.06516.463
8438.16515.660
8536.36214.981
8634.43014.087
8732.80913.193
8830.90612.492
8929.18811.673
9027.08810.792
9125.0499.996
9222.7829.090
9320.8918.163
9418.7697.089
9516.3776.355
9613.7585.548
9710.9134.441
987.9403.558
994.5332.611


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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